Mike Lowell's Health is Key to Red Sox Chances

The Nation is worried about their guy on the hot corner. The Red Sox can ill afford to have Mike Lowell injured for a significant part of the season. If the Sox are to return to the promised land in '09, Mikey need to put up numbers like he did in '07, without Manny's bat in the lineup the team cannot do well without a solid hitting performance by Lowell. Baseball Prospectus does not think that is likely to happen:

Lowell's rehab is supposedly going well, but the combination of a severe injury and a player in his mid-30s rarely augurs heightened production. Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA forecasting system envisions him showing no more durability than he did in 2008, while projecting a further decline in offensive production, dropping to .272/.332/.442.

Lowell will not participate in the WBC and will not be back at full strength until April. Cross your fingers folks, this season could depend on what he can bring to the table.